JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch

Alex White (44-20) 7134-5298
alexander.s.white@jpmorgan.com
Raphael Brun-Aguerre (44-20) 7134-8308
raphael.x.brun-aguerre@jpmorgan.com
October 26, 2012

Catalan challenge asks real questions of Europe

· An independent Catalonia might be credible in the long

term, but major fiscal and political questions remain

· Transition costs of a move toward independence would

be high, and trigger broader worries about Spain

· Elections on November 25 will likely start the move towards

an eventual referendum

· We don’t expect the issue to crystallize in the near term,

but to remain a source of uncertainty for several years

· There are larger questions: Why should Germans support

poorer Spanish regions if Catalans object?
 http://estatico.vozpopuli.com/upload/Laura_Garcia/jpm-catalan-challenge-asks-real-questions-of-europe-2012-10-25-971142.pdf